By John H.T. Stewart
MONROVIA, LIBERIA – Recent public pronouncements by former Guinean President Alpha Conde proclaiming himself as the legitimate President of Guinea while calling on members of the Guinean Armed Forces to stand with him as their legitimate Commander in-Chief cannot go without comment because they are provocative dangerous and pose a high potential security threat to Liberia.
This is because such statements intended to incite armed rebellion in Guinea have repercussions for Liberia. Firstly, there are in Monrovia, large numbers of ex fighters from across the spectrum who have been virtually unemployed since the end of the UN sponsored Disarmament, Demobilization, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (DDRR) program in 2004 and who constitute a ready pool of combat hardened potential recruits.
Some are even reported to have been involved in mercenary activities in neighboring Ivory Coast and have reportedly killed UN Peace keepers while in that country. At one point during the Sirleaf administration a few individuals were tried on charges of Mercenarism although their activities were carried out not in Liberia but rather the Ivory Coast.
It is no secret, according to informed sources that Liberia has, in the past, been an exporter of mercenaries to other African countries said to include Sierra Leone, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Togo and much further afield.
Only recently, local media was awash with news about the arrest, detention and subsequent release of a Guinean national to the custody of Guinean Security officers who arrived in Monrovia aboard a special flight. The individual has been accused of recruiting ex fighters for action in Guinea.
Lawyers for the arrested individual led by former Associate Supreme Court Justice Kabineh Ja’neh have since accused the Liberian government of kidnapping and have reportedly filed a Petition for a Writ of Habeas Corpus to have the Liberian Government produce his living body in Court. It remains unclear at this point what is the outcome of the case.
However whichever way it goes, this is a matter of grave concern with deep implications for sustained peace and stability in Liberia. Former Guinean President made this public statement from the safe inclines of Turkey where he is currently seeking asylum away from France which was naturally expected and where he spent more than three decades in exile.
The former President during his tenure is reported to have awarded lucrative contracts including road construction and mining etc to Turkish companies. According to informed sources current Guinean leader, General Doumbuya had cancelled all those contracts on grounds of alleged irregularities in the bidding and award processes.
And this appears to be reasons why Turkey’s President Erdogan has apparently given his blessings to the former President and a platform to make such public comments which are clearly intended to incite rebellion in Guinea with the possible aid of Liberian ex fighters recruited as mercenaries which could have a destabilizing effect on Liberia.
The arrested individual(name withheld) a Guinean national according to personal identification documents is reported to have possessed a large sum of money with him at the time of his arrest. This according to security sources drew suspicion that such amount of money was being used for other unidentified purposes.
Based on reports from informed sources this is a covert well-funded operation by Turkey, possibly with resources acquired from the predatory Turkish Concession owned gold mines in Kinjor, Grand Cape Mount.
Further according to informed sources, the gold mined at Kinjor are smelted into bars which are loaded on weekly helicopter flights straight out of the country and onward to Turkey. During the prolonged Liberian civil war, illegal mining, gold, diamond and iron ore and harvesting of forest resources by unscrupulous foreign businessmen provided much incentive to warlords to continue the plunder.
Today, the warlords have been replaced by predatory investors. For example, out of 66 Concession Agreements signed under the Sirleaf administration 64 including the Bea Mountain Concession were reported to be bogus according to the Moore Stephens Report. It is no doubt therefore that Turkey has an eye on mineral exploitation in Guinea as well as in Liberia where they are currently engaged in the mining and export of gold under the rubric of a predatory concession agreement.
At one point, according to informed sources, a Turkish company had expressed interest in providing electric power to Monrovia and environs from a large barge to be stationed within the Freeport of Monrovia harbor but the Liberian government did not buy into the scheme apparently out of concern that its disastrous and catastrophic performance in Sierra Leone left little to be desired.
Turkey according to analysts is not prepared to take the Guinean Government’s cancellation of agreements with Turkish companies lying down so they have resorted to intimidation and threats of rebellion and instability through its mouthpiece former President Alpha Conde.
But deposed former Guinean President Alpha Conde himself lacks legitimacy because his term limits had expired but he engineered a change in the Guinean Constitution to extend his term of office. His move was however popularly rejected and invoked mass public protests which was met with force that resulted in the loss of lives.
It was such action on his part that provoked the coup which deposed him and which was popularly acclaimed at the time.
Now the Guinean public is demanding a return to Constitutional rule which the military had earlier promised but reneged later.
While the Guinean masses are clamoring for change and a return to democratic rule, it does not by any means suggest that Guineans are clamoring for the leadership of Alpha Conde.
The situation in neighboring Guinea suggests that the Liberian Government should adopt a non-standoffish approach by engaging the Guinean leadership because any outbreak of armed conflict in Guinea will certainly trigger a flow of thousands of refugees from that country into Liberia.
I do not recall in recent memory of any visit by President Boakai, official or non-official to the Republic of Guinea since his assumption of office.
This in, my opinion has tended to create a frosty atmosphere of relations between the two national leaderships. Real Politik demands that President Boakai reconsider his options and constructively engage the Guinean leadership.
Lest it be forgotten Liberia is not impermeable to or isolated from the threat of jihadism which has spread into countries bordering Guinea such as Mali and Burkina Faso and which has consequently drawn in the involvement of Russia in the fight against jihadism. Informed sources and international media outlets also report the involvement of Ukraine on the side of the Jihadists in Mali and Burkina Faso.
In short the West African sub-region is rapidly becoming a theater of war, Jihadist expansion and East-West confrontation reminiscent of the Cold War era.
This suggests that Liberian authorities should do all it can to avoid being drawn and sucked into confrontation with Guinea fueled by growing Turkish business and economic interests in the Mano River Basin ranging from construction, mining and engineering projects to the supply and sale of military hardware such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) drones.
More to that the Guinean people stood with Liberia during the course of its destructive civil conflict and Guinean soldiers laid down their lives here in Liberia in defense of the democracy which we enjoy today.
No one should hold any illusions here: Guinean intelligence have eagle eyes on Liberia which is natural given the presence of thousands of Guinea emigres in Liberia.
Current Guinean leader, General Doumbuya is no stranger to Liberia. According to informed sources he once ago lived in Liberia at the corner of Benson and Mechlin Streets with a close relative believed to be his uncle and has family ties in Liberia.
Besides, Guinean intelligence, according to informed sources are said to have infiltrated the ranks of those planning and plotting to recruit ex LURD and ULIMO-K fighters to unseat the military Government in Guinea.
Compared to Guinea’s National Army whose total strength, according to Index Mundi, stand at 12,000 active personnel, (9,000 Army; 400 Navy; 800 Air Force; 300 BASP; 1,500 Gendarmerie) (2020) Liberia’s military has a total strength of 2,000 active personnel only.
In terms of defense expenditure, in 2019, Guinea’s expenditure on defense accounted for two percent(2%) of its Gross Domestic Product(GDP) while for Liberia, defense expenditure over the same period, 2019, accounts for less than one percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) standing at 0.5%. Quite clearly, Guinea has an advantage over Liberia in terms of troop strength and military equipment.
Given the above, the Liberian Government will definitely open itself to reprisals and possible destabilization should it fail to crack down vigorously on attempts to recruit ex fighters for action in Guinea.
So, the question now is how can the Joseph Boakai led Government mitigate the risks to National Security and Stability before things get out of hand.
Firstly, in my opinion, the Liberian Government needs to do an in-depth Analysis of the current Threat Environment both domestic and regional (Mano River Union/Basin) and formulate/develop appropriate mitigating measures to address the situation.
Additionally, this Government, particularly the Ministry of Internal Affairs should work to strengthen cooperation with cross border communities with the view to developing or resuscitating early warning mechanisms as well as mutual conflict prevention and peace-building activities in order to reduce chances/possibilities of cross-border armed forays from one country into another.
Lastly the leaderships of both countries should cooperate to insure that that the human rights of those suspected to be involved in unwholesome activities detrimental to the safety, security and stability of both countries are upheld and respected.
This comes against the backdrop of reports of heavy deployment of military and paramilitary forces along the common border.
President Boakai has to act fast and with resolve.
